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Floating Rates Versus Fixed Rates
Reem Heakal

Did you know that the foreign exchange market (also referred to as FX or forex) is the largest market in the planet? In fact, over $one trillion is traded in the currency markets every day. This article is definitely not a primer for currency trading, but it will help you understand exchange rates and why some fluctuate whereas others do not.

What Is an Exchange Rate?
An exchange rate is the rate at that one currency can be exchanged for an additional. In other words, it is the price of another country's currency compared to that of your own. If you're traveling to a different country, you would like to "obtain" the local currency. Simply like the price of any asset, the exchange rate is the worth at that you'll be able to obtain that currency. If you're traveling to Egypt, as an example, and therefore the exchange rate for USD 1.00 is EGP 5.fifty, this implies that for each U.S. dollar, you can buy five and a [*fr1] Egyptian pounds. Theoretically, identical assets should sell at the identical worth in several countries, as a result of the exchange rate must maintain the inherent price of 1 currency against the opposite.

Mounted
There are 2 ways in which the value of a currency can be determined against another. A mounted, or pegged, rate could be a rate the govt (central bank) sets and maintains because the official exchange rate. A set worth will be determined against a major world currency (usually the U.S. dollar, but additionally other major currencies like the euro, the yen, or a basket of currencies). In order to maintain the local exchange rate, the central bank buys and sells its own currency on the foreign exchange market in return for the currency to which it is pegged.

If, for instance, it is determined that the value of a single unit of local currency is equal to USD three.0zero, the central bank can have to make sure that it can offer the market with those bucks. In order to keep up the rate, the central bank should keep a high level of foreign reserves. This could be a reserved quantity of foreign currency held by the central bank that it can use to unleash (or absorb) additional funds into (or out of) the market. This ensures an appropriate money supply, applicable fluctuations within the market (inflation/deflation), and ultimately, the exchange rate. The central bank can additionally regulate the official exchange rate when necessary.

Floating
Unlike the fastened rate, a floating exchange rate is set by the non-public market through provide and demand. A floating rate is typically termed "self-correcting", as any differences in provide and demand will automatically be corrected in the market. Take a look at this simplified model: if demand for a currency is low, its worth will decrease, thus creating imported product a lot of expensive and therefore stimulating demand for local goods and services. This in turn can generate additional jobs, and hence an auto-correction would occur in the market. A floating exchange rate is constantly changing.

In reality, no currency is wholly fastened or floating. In a fixed regime, market pressures will conjointly influence changes within the exchange rate. Typically, when a local currency does mirror its true worth against its pegged currency, a "black market" which is more reflective of actual offer and demand could develop. A central bank will often then be forced to revalue or devalue the official rate so that the speed is per the unofficial one, thereby halting the activity of the black market.

In a very floating regime, the central bank could additionally intervene when it is necessary to ensure stability and to avoid inflation; but, it is less usually that the central bank of a floating regime will interfere.

The planet Once Pegged
Between 1870 and 1914, there was a global mounted exchange rate. Currencies were linked to gold, which means that the price of a native currency was fastened at a group exchange rate to gold ounces. This was known as the gold customary. This allowed for unrestricted capital mobility plus world stability in currencies and trade; but, with the start of World War I, the gold standard was abandoned.

At the tip of World War II, the conference at Bretton Woods, in a shot to get global economic stability and increased volumes of world trade, established the essential rules and regulations governing international exchange. As such, a world monetary system, embodied within the International Monetary Fund (IMF), was established to push foreign trade and to take care of the monetary stability of nations and therefore that of the world economy

It had been agreed that currencies would once again be mounted, or pegged, but now to the U.S. dollar, which in flip was pegged to gold at USD thirty five/ounce. What this meant was that the price of a currency was directly linked with the worth of the U.S. greenback. So if you needed to shop for Japanese yen, the value of the yen would be expressed in U.S. bucks, whose value in turn was firm within the value of gold. If a country required to readjust the value of its currency, it may approach the IMF to regulate the pegged worth of its currency. The peg was maintained till 1971, when the U.S. dollar could now not hold the price of the pegged rate of USD thirty five/ounce of gold.

From then on, major governments adopted a floating system, and all makes an attempt to move back to a world peg were eventually abandoned in 1985. Since then, no major economies have gone back to a peg, and the use of gold as a peg has been utterly abandoned.

Why Peg?
The reasons to peg a currency are linked to stability. Especially in nowadays's developing nations, a country might decide to peg its currency to create a stable atmosphere for foreign investment. With a peg the investor can invariably know what his/her investment worth is, and therefore can not have to worry regarding daily fluctuations. A pegged currency will also facilitate to lower inflation rates and generate demand, which results from bigger confidence in the soundness of the currency.

Fastened regimes, but, can usually cause severe money crises since a peg is troublesome to maintain in the future. This was seen in the Mexican (1995), Asian and Russian (1997) money crises: an try to maintain a high worth of the native currency to the peg resulted in the currencies eventually turning into overvalued. This meant that the governments might no longer meet the strain to convert the local currency into the foreign currency at the pegged rate. With speculation and panic, investors scrambled to urge out their money and convert it into foreign currency before the local currency was devalued against the peg; foreign reserve provides eventually became depleted. In Mexico's case, the government was forced to devalue the peso by thirty%. In Thailand, the govt eventually had to permit the currency to float, and by the top of 1997, the bhat had lost its value by fifty% because the market's demand and supply readjusted the price of the local currency.

Countries with pegs are usually related to having unsophisticated capital markets and weak regulating institutions. The peg is thus there to assist create stability in such an setting. It takes a stronger system in addition to a mature market to maintain a float. When a rustic is forced to devalue its currency, it's also needed to proceed with some type of economic reform, like implementing larger transparency, in an effort to strengthen its money institutions.

Some governments could select to own a "floating," or "crawling" peg, whereby the govt reassesses the price of the peg periodically and then changes the peg rate accordingly. Usually the amendment is devaluation, however one that is controlled thus that market panic is avoided. This methodology is typically used in the transition from a peg to a floating regime, and it permits the government to "save face" by not being forced to devalue in an uncontrollable crisis.

Although the peg has worked in creating international trade and monetary stability, it had been used solely at a time when all the main economies were a half of it. And while a floating regime is not while not its flaws, it's proven to be a additional efficient means that of determining the long term worth of a currency and making equilibrium in the international market.


Article Courtesy:
http://finance.yahoo.
com/education/
currencies/article/
106076/Basic_
concepts_for_
currencies_markets


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Forex news and articles about spot Gold prices and oil

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Convert Currency Warren

Let's print money and buy back the national debt.

Many years ago, Milton Friedman wrote an article which set out a monetary system which involved no national debt, though he subsequently did not pursue the idea with vigour (1). And in 2010, a former Wall Street trader and banker, Warren Mosler, wrote an article which suggested much the same (2).
The conventional view is that if a government spends more than it gets from taxation, it needs to borrow to cover the difference. But neither Friedman nor Mosler said that governments necessarily need do this. That is, both authors said that, within limits, governments can simply print extra money where spending exceeds income.
Now that might sound irresponsible. But it's not necessarily, because the relationship between money supply increases and inflation is much more complicated than is commonly supposed.
So could we simply print money and buy back the national debt? I'll argue below that the answer is essentially "yes": that is, there are no strictly economic problems involved in doing this, though there certainly are political problems. So here goes.

Quantitative Easing.
Several countries have already printed a fair amount of money and bought back national debt under the guise of Quantitative Easing. And this has been a bit of a non-event: the effect on demand and inflation has not been spectacular. Thus printing significant amounts of money does not, contrary to popular belief, lead to instant hyperinflation. But of course, printing can go too far.
The consensus seems to be that QE has been mildly stimulatory. Thus QE done big time would doubtless be too stimulatory, and thus too inflationary. But that is no problem because the inflationary effect can always be nullified extra tax or reduced public spending.
Note that it is the deflationary effect of those tax/spending changes that matters. And if the deflationary effect exactly cancelled out the above inflationary effect, there would be no net effect (apart from debt reduction). That is, there need not be any change to total numbers employed, average take home pay, and so on. (Incidentally I am using the word deflation here in the "demand reducing" sense, rather than in the "price reducing" sense.)
As to the exact amount of additional tax needed to counter the inflationary effect of a buy-back, that is a difficult question, which I will not address here in detail. But there is a good reason for thinking that only around $1bn of extra tax would be needed for every $10bn of debt bought back.
This reason is that QE or buying-back is essentially to swap two assets which are not greatly different to each other: money and government debt. In contrast, taxation, dollar for dollar, is much more serious: each dollar of tax is a dollar confiscated from the private sector.
Just to expand on that, money is a paper asset which pays little or no interest, whereas government debt, for the private sector, is a paper asset which DOES pay interest. As for government debt which is near maturity, this is as good as cash.
Returning for a moment to the above point that the deflationary effect of the extra tax (or reduced public spending) must cancel out the stimulatory effect of a buy-back, this does not necessarily have to be the case. One could collect insufficient tax, which would mean the buy-back would be stimulatory. But for simplicity, let's stick with the "zero stimulus" assumption.
So why don't we go for it: print a few trillion of new money and just buy back the national debt?

Keynes and Roosevelt.
This buy-back proposal very much ties in with a point made by Keynes. Keynes said (e.g. in a letter to Roosevelt in the 1930s) that stimulus can come from extra government spending financed either by borrowing or money printing (3).
Now if Keynes was right, it follows that if a country has recently effected stimulus via the borrowing route, it should be possible to switch, after the event, to the "money printing" route. That is, it should be possible to turn portions of national debt into monetary base without too much of a problem. Incidentally, Ellen Brown advocates very much this sort of solution to the supposedly insoluble debt problem in Chapter 39 of her book "The Web of Debt". The chapter is aptly entitled "Liquidating the Federal Debt Without Causing Inflation".

Debt held by foreign entities.
A potential, but not serious problem relates to debt held by foreign entities (foreign governments, institutions, etc). Clearly where debt held by such entities is bought back, a portion of the newly acquired cash in the hands of those entities will leave the country, which would depress the value of the relevant country's currency on foreign exchange markets, which in turn would depress living standards in the country. However there are several answers to this problem.
First, the decline in living standards is unlikely to be dramatic. The pound sterling lost about 25% of its value in 2008. The result has not been Greek style riots in the UK. Moreover the loss in UK living standards has been small compared to the loss suffered by European periphery countries as a result of their economic mismanagement.
Second, where just one country buys-back, its currency certainly loses value. But if several of the larger countries with allegedly excessive national debts all bought back simultaneously, those countries' creditors would have fewer escape routes. Thus the foreign exchange effects would be smaller.
Indeed, problems like the above foreign exchange one are not unique to buying-back. That is, any country which does anything significantly different to the rest of the world is asking for trouble. For example if one country raises its interest rates when the rest of the world is cutting rates, that country may well have problems. Thus a fair appraisal of buy-back (or interest rate adjustments) should involve gauging the effects when a significant proportion of the world's economies act simultaneously.

The private sector's paper assets - long term.
Another apparent problem is as follows. National debts have risen substantially during the recession, which in turn means that if much of this debt is replaced with monetary base, then come the recovery, the private sector will find itself holding far more monetary base than before the recession. And that could easily prove inflationary.
The answer to this is that it is generally accepted that in a recession, it is desirable for governments to run deficits, which result in a faster than normal increase in the national debt. And come the recovery, it is generally accepted that the debt can be paid back, or at the very least, its expansion can be stopped.
Now if much of this debt is converted to monetary base, then not much changes. That is, instead of paying back debt or stopping it growing, all that happens is that the monetary base is reined in (via extra tax), or at least its expansion is stopped.
Any extra tax required here would not, repeat not, mean reduced living standards. Remember that excessive amounts of money held by the private sector is so to speak money which cannot in the aggregate be spent, otherwise it causes inflation. That is, removing some of this "monopoly money" from the private sector would have no effect on the amount that the private sector spent in real terms on goods and services.
Put another way, a buy back (like QE) means the typical employer sees additional demand from customers. That effect, if not countered, would result in extra profits and/or higher wages, and/or extra output and so on. So assuming constant GDP is the objective, the effect of the money supply increase has to be countered by extra tax on profits, wages, and so on.

Do buy-backs really make sense?
Astute readers will have noticed that no actual reason has been given so far for debt reduction. Half the world is in a panic about debt, but that is not a good reason. There are, however, three good reasons.
First, as mentioned above, Keynes claimed that stimulus can be funded either via borrowed or printed money. Now borrowing has a deflationary effect, that is, it is anti-stimulatory! So what is the point of borrowing? Frankly I don't know.
Second, where stimulus is required and government borrows, the lenders - that is the wealthy - profit from the exercise. Now why should they, when there is an alternative, i.e. money printing, which does not benefit any particular group? Thomas Edison said that any new money should be the property of the people. He was right (4).
Third, the mere existence of national debt tempts politicians into putting the country in debt to other countries. This is not to suggest there is anything inherently wrong with debt (owed to other countries or other entities). The problem is that politicians' main motive for running up debt is that it is a way of buying votes: not a good reason for debt.
As to why Keynes advocated borrowing, I'm not sure. I get the impression he thought he was surrounded by economic illiterates who thought that printing money invariably led to hyperinflation. So to keep this lot happy, he advocated borrowing instead: an alternative which he himself did not strongly favour.

Conclusion: the only problems are political.
To summarise, there are no strictly economic problems involved in buying back national debts. Obviously buying back a country's entire debt in just one year would involve too much dislocation. But doing it over a five or ten year period would be no problem.
The only real problems are political. That is a buy-back, while it need not involve any significant change in living standards, would probably involve increased taxation and/or reduced public spending. And whichever sections of the population were affected would object. In fact they can be relied on to jump up and down with contrived indignation that would put Hollywood actors to shame.
________

References:

1. http://nb.vse.cz/~BARTONP/mae911/friedman.pdf (p.250)
2. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/warren-mosler/proposals-for-the-banking_b_432105.html (See 2nd last paragraph).
3. http://www.scribd.com/doc/33886843/Keynes-NYT-Dec-31-1933 (See 5th paragraph).
4. http://prosperityuk.com/2000/09/thomas-edison-on-government-created-debt-free-money/

______________

Ralph Musgrave studied economics at New College, Durham, UK and has had several peer reviewd papers and articles published in economics journals, books and other publications. [[ct]]: Convert Currency Warren

Warren Buffett on Money Supply

24 Mar 2009 at 12:10pm



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